solomon的無限空間

今天早上看到的文章，Fangraph選出了2012年球季結束後，最佳的十個球員異動。

其中、跟Toronto有關聯的佔了三個(按排名算是四個，因為Dickey的交易算了兩次)。

整篇文章的連結在此，請參考。


當然，就不逐一的來看了，直接看跟我們有關聯的部份。

首先是第10名：
10. The Blue Jays acquire R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, and Mike Nickeas from New York.

The Blue Jays last big move gets the last spot on this list, mainly because the cost to acquire Dickey was pretty substantial. Having to surrender two highly regarded prospects to get Dickey from the Mets makes this less of a steal and more of an aggressive upgrade, but it’s an aggressive upgrade that has a real chance to pay off. Dickey makes the Blue Jays a top notch AL East contender, and because they were able to sign him to a below market extension, it’s not simply a one year rental. Much is going to be made of his age and the fact that he only has had one elite season, but the idea of Dickey as a one year wonder is a total myth, and even the 2010-2011 version of Dickey would be a nice acquisition for the Blue Jays. Toss in the chance that he might have another ace like season left in his belt, and the acquisition of Dickey may have been the biggest upgrade any team made all winter.

個人想法：
真的，一次放掉兩個好的農場新秀真的很可惜 ，但當球隊可以獲得一個拿到賽揚獎的王牌，而且還可以用低於市價與這位王牌延長合約，這個交易值得。從NY Mets的角度來看，他們也有賺，在這個最佳球員異動排名中、如果這個交易以他們的角度來看，拿到 Travis D’Arnaud與Noah Syndergaard這兩個年輕球員、可以排到第五。所以說這個交易，也可以說是典型的雙贏交易。

當然，雙贏不是重點，我們要有贏才是重點。

他雖然已經38歲，但我相信Dickey絕對還是可以繳出過去三年的平均成績。直接看Bill James預測他2013年的數據：16勝8敗、226局、ERA3.58，很夠水準了。而且場內場外這位選手的能力與行為、也都將帶給球隊很多新聞與話題，附加價值比想像多，明星球員的出現誰人不愛？


出色的蝴蝶球投手R.A. Dickey，相信投資在這位賽揚獎投手身上絕對值得。

然後是第3名：
3. The Blue Jays acquire Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck from Miami.

While most of the attention surrounding this trade was scorn aimed at the Marlins for blowing up their team again, kudos to Alex Anthopolous and his crew for having the stones to make such a big trade. The four players Toronto acquired in this deal could easily add +10 WAR to the Blue Jays just by themselves, and this is the kind of monstrous step forward that the Jays needed to make in order to put themselves in position to make a big run this year. They took on a decent amount of money and gave up some real prospects to make the trade happen, but this was a game-changing trade for a franchise that needed to stop treading water. The Jays saw an opportunity to take the AL East and reenergize their fan base, and they took advantage of the best chance they had to make 2013 a winning season. Good for them.

個人想法：
有了這個交易，才會有後續找來Dickey的安排，與Miami這個交易、可以說是整個季末Toronto補強的引火點。這幾位新朋友、以他們去年的WAR全部加一起，就已經超過10場勝場，一次補到換到這些勝場，畢其功於一役，夠乾脆。當然，換來的這些球員，並不是沒有缺點，並不是沒有問號，而且、之後我們所要負擔的薪資，也是相當龐大。但這個交易的出現，讓球隊整個戰力翻轉向上，讓許多球迷重新找回話題，讓球隊裡面的大牌球員(ex: Jose Bautista)知道球隊真的是要玩真的，整個信心程度加強，這些所代表的意義，已經遠超過這個交易本身。

有機會賭一把，AA決不手軟，況且，這交易看起來贏面大很多，為何不作？

再來是第2名：
2. The Blue Jays sign Melky Cabrera for 2/$16M.

It’s easy to draw a firm connection between Cabrera’s monster 2012 season and the fact that he failed a drug test, admitting that he used PEDs during the season. It’s easy to assume that a drug free Cabrera won’t be anything close to the player he was in San Francisco. But at $8 million a year, the Blue Jays aren’t paying Cabrera to be anything close to the player he was last year. They’re paying him to be a roughly average outfielder, and anything he does above that is gravy. This is a guy who was a +4 win player without failing a drug test in 2011. A guy who got to the Major Leagues as a 20-year-old, and was an average player for the Yankees at age 21. A guy headed into his age-28 season. You have to believe that PEDs are the sole reason that Cabrera has been an effective hitter the last two seasons to think that he can’t be an average player for the Blue Jays the next two seasons, and if he any of his improvement wasn’t PED related, then the Jays are going to get a massive bargain.

個人感想：
喔，我自己是沒有把這個簽下Cabrera的動作、排到上述兩筆交易的前面，不過這裡竟然這麼排，當然要來好好重新想一下。

去年Cabrera藥檢沒過，被禁賽50場，所有的成績也都被質疑可能是因為吃藥而灌水，都要大打折扣。不過吃藥到底可以對個人成績加分多少、本來就沒有個真正的說法，如果說Cabrera在2012年的成績要打折扣，那2011年他藥檢沒問題那一年，成績是不是可以算真的？那年他出場155場，打擊三圍是0.305/0.339/0.470，WAR的貢獻是4.2，這樣的成績如何？他才28歲，無病無痛，維持這個數字應該不是問題，那麼8M/1yr，絕對可以接受、絕對有賺頭。

準備好好過個農曆年，然後迎接MLB新球季的到來，期待中。